CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-01-30T16:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-01-30T16:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36723/-1
CME Note: Flux rope CME seen to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. CME not captured by STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap which started at 2025-01-30T15:09Z. The source is a filament eruption seen beginning at approx. 2025-01-30T13:49Z in SDO AIA 304, spanning approx. S05E05 to S40E40. Dimming and post eruptive arcades are also visible in SDO AIA 193 and 211. Potential arrival signature: characterized by a sheath (no shock) beginning at 2025-02-01T22:25Z and following a coronal hole high speed stream, based on an enhancement in solar wind speed and density (but not temperature) according to Sanchita Pal and Carlos Perez Alanis from the LASSOS group. A much more pronounced flux rope signature is visible around 2025-02-02T16:08Z in which a smooth rotation and separation of magnetic field components is observed, with Btotal reaching a maximum of 11nT. As this signature overlaps with waning effects from the 2025-01-31 coronal hole high speed stream, there is little change in solar wind speed observed. As this arrival signature indicates frontal impact of a CME, this is more likely the effect of the more central faint 2025-01-30T17:48Z CME rather than a glancing blow from the 2025-01-30T16:12Z CME, however both CMEs have the same filament as a source.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-02-01T22:25Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-02-02T03:18Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 67.5%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.14286 - 6.28571
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: -114.80 hour(s)
Difference: -4.88 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-02-06T17:13Z
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